What are Uganda’s odds against South Africa? – The Kampala Report

The last encounter between Uganda Cranes and South Africa’s Bafana Bafana was in June 2021, a friendly that ended 3-2 in favor of South Africa. Since then, the two teams have not met, but the stakes are now higher as they face off in Group K of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) Qualifiers, alongside Congo and South Sudan. The match will take place on Friday at Orlando Stadium.

Over the past two decades, Uganda and South Africa have clashed four times, with South Africa winning three of those encounters and one match ending in a draw. On paper, Uganda finds itself in a relatively favorable group compared to previous qualifiers, especially since Bafana Bafana is the only team in the group that featured in the last AFCON edition. This is in contrast to past campaigns where Uganda faced stronger opponents like Algeria.

In the latest FIFA rankings, South Africa is positioned 59th in the world, while Uganda is ranked 94th. Congo and South Sudan are further behind at 133rd and 167th, respectively. However, rankings do not fully capture the dynamics of the teams. South Africa’s recent AFCON performance was noteworthy, as they secured a bronze medal and showcased an impressive, dynamic style of play.

For Uganda, the challenge extends beyond facing a higher-ranked team; it involves adapting to a new playing philosophy under Belgian coach Joseph Paul Put. The Cranes, having missed the last two AFCON tournaments, are working to reinvent themselves, moving away from the conservative, defense-oriented approach of former coach Milutin Sredojević.

Put’s tactical shift was evident in Uganda’s recent World Cup qualifiers, where he employed a more attacking 4-3-3 formation and integrated several attack-minded players. Notably, former SC Villa midfielder Travis Mutyaba, who rarely featured under Sredojević, has become a key player in Put’s lineup.

While Put’s approach has injected attacking flair into the team, it has also exposed vulnerabilities in defense, with Uganda conceding more goals compared to the structured defense of the Sredojević era. This newfound openness will be tested against a South African side that has scored seven goals in their last six matches, posing a significant challenge for a Cranes defense still adjusting to the new system.

South African Coach Hugo Broos acknowledged that while his team has more quality, he is wary of Uganda’s aggressiveness. “Quality-wise, we are the better team, but that won’t be enough on Friday. Uganda is a very athletic team with players who fight for every ball, and we’ll need to compete against that,” Broos said.

Uganda Cranes striker Muhammad Shaban, who recently transferred from KCCA FC to Libya’s Al Hilal Benghazi, emphasized that football is not about names but about performance on the pitch. “Football is not about names; it’s about who gives it more. We are going to give it our all to secure three points,” Shaban stated.

His teammate, Denis Omedi of Uganda Cup Champions Kitara, shared a similar sentiment. “It’s just a team like us. They may be big, but we are here to play, not to be intimidated by their reputation,” Omedi said. South Africa also faces concerns, notably the absence of captain Ronwen Williams and vice-captain Percy Tau due to injury. For Uganda, the return of captain Khalid Aucho, who missed the recent World Cup qualifiers, provides some stability. The challenge for Coach Put will be to strike the right balance between attack and defense to secure valuable points.