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Rising Tensions in Horn of Africa as Egypt Delivers Military Equipment to Somalia

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Port and military officials in Mogadishu confirmed to Reuters on Sunday that weapons from the ship, including anti-aircraft guns and artillery, were unloaded, and convoys have carried the weapons to a defence ministry building and nearby military bases.

According to experts, the arrival of military equipment to Somalia will likely exacerbate the military posturing between Egypt and Somalia versus Ethiopia.

Nasra Bashir Ali, an official at Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s office, posted a photo on her X account of Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur watching as the ship was being unloaded.

Ethiopia, a landlocked country without access to the sea, saw the construction of the dam as a crucial infrastructure for its development and energy needs and began the building of the dam on the Blue Nile in 2011. Upon completion, the dam would be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.

Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for its water supply, raised concerns that the project will significantly reduce the water supply needed for agriculture and water security.

The lack of a binding agreement resulted in increased military posturing, with Egypt expressing its willingness to use “all available means” to protect its water rights.

Ethiopia, on the other hand, remains ambitious in its pursuit and insists on its right to utilize its natural resources to develop its economy.

To further their plans of having access to the sea, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a controversial deal with the self-declared republic of Somaliland on New Year’s Day to lease a 20km (12-mile) section of its coastline for 50 years to set up a naval base.

Somaliland broke away from Somalia more than 30 years ago and has been pushing for recognition as a republic. The agreement with Ethiopia could also mean Ethiopia officially recognising the breakaway republic – something that works for them.

Amid fears that such a move might set a precedent and encourage other countries to recognise Somaliland’s independence, Somalia described the deal as an act of “aggression” as it still regards Somaliland very much as part of its territory.

In August, Egypt and Somalia signed a defense pact and a military cooperation protocol following a visit by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Cairo, where he met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Ethiopia currently has around 3,000 soldiers stationed in Somalia as part of an African Union peacekeeping mission (ATMIS) fighting Islamist insurgents. An estimated 5,000-7,000 troops are also deployed in other regions under a bilateral agreement.

Somalia has criticized the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, calling it an attack on its sovereignty and demanding Ethiopia’s troops to leave by the end of the year unless Addis Ababa cancels the agreement.

Ethiopia’s government did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment, but has previously stated that it cannot remain inactive while “other actors” are taking actions to destabilize the region.



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