NRM coalescing around First Family will intensify friction-Kabushenga

The Chief Executive Officer of New Vision and Uganda Media Centre Robert Kabushenga, wrote an intriguing piece on the political future of Uganda specifically parliament and ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party.

Below is the eight points he wrote on platform X

The end of the Luwero Consensus. As you know, it was a coalition of difference tendencies loosely called the Movement. In 2015 this balancing act ended. A few hold overs like Kahinda Otafiire &Moses Ali remain but the type of politics is gone.

One thing Rebecca Kadaga did was to construct Parliament as an autonomous political entity with resources. Anita was her most brilliant student & operative. She also figured how to intermediate different power centres. This is how she became power broker.

The decision by opposition presidential candidates not to go to parliament outsourced their political role to MPs without a clear & firm leadership. On their own, the opposition MPs developed their own minds. In this vacuum, Anita stepped in to provide leadership. She even extended an olive branch to NRM MPs who are in the party’s lower pecking order. This is how she built a formidable network of experienced politicians from across the political & ethnic divide. Underestimate her at your own peril.

The Catholic Church has been without an effective political interlocutor. This is a role she is cultivating.

The obsession by the Boss to break the Opposition gave her access to immense political power & money. She used it to cultivate business/investor contacts & how to work the security establishment. On a few occasions she managed to reverse decisions of the Executive on behalf of private interests. This positioned her as a powerful individual.

I see two possible NRM political tendencies coalescing around sections of the first family. But these will exhaust themselves in bitter rivalry since there will be no single leader who can manage this kind of friction.

The old NRM is simply moribund. CEC is fossilized, Secretariat has no resources & so does nothing, the Chairman’s office functions as an occasional mobilization centre. Hajjati Namyalo who runs it, is the de facto Secretary General. My man Richard Todwong is there as a formality. To maintain the illusion of a party, window dressing so to speak. This party cannot revive with the current team & certainly not in the current political terrain.

Which leaves the Military as the only effective organized group? I don’t want to go into this. And this is where I end my thoughts.