No neutral fan wants to hear it. You will most definitely never hear such a brazen prediction from anyone associated with Manchester City. Neither club chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak, nor chief executive officer Ferran Soriano, nor director of football Aitor Begiristain, nor manager Pep Guardiola will ever be so bold.
But deep down in their hearts they know, just like former Chelsea CEO Peter Kenyon did on the eve of the 2005/6 English Premier League season; that the 2024/25 title winner, will come from a ‘small group of one’. How history repeats itself.
Manchester City’s dominance of the English football landscape has been so thorough that any manager hoping to unseat the four-time defending champions must ask his players to aim finish above the Etihad Stadium outfit. It goes without saying that will require 90 points or more, and even then it may not be enough.
In every season before Arsene Wenger’s 2003/4 Invincibles, 89 points had been enough to be crowned champions. It was Jose Mourinho’s 2004/5 Chelsea which raised the bar to 95 points. In 2018/19, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool came within breaching the 100 point mark but still finished second to City with 97 points.
City’s average points tally in the six out of the last seven seasons they have won the title under Guardiola is 93 points. That’s the target Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta must chase if he hopes to unseat the Etihad Stadium winning juggernaut. The 84 and 89 points garnered by Arsenal in the last two campaigns are simply not good enough.
Arteta has strengthened his resources by the recruitment of Ricardo Calafiori whereas Jurrien Timber’s return from injury is akin to a new signing. But the Gunners remain short of a 25+ a goal striker in the mould of City’s two time top scorer Erling Braut Haaland.
The Cityzens principal strength is that they are impervious to pressure. Whereas Arsenal floundered in the 2022/23 home straight and lost winnable fixtures to West Ham United and Fulham in 2023/24, whenever the City juggernaut get into their element, they can string together twenty match winning streaks.
Until opponents develop such steely nerves and an equally indefatigable will to win, they will remain among the best of the rest.
Even without seven Euro 2024 stars, Liverpool under Arne Slot have been smooth on the eye. Along with Arsenal, they are the team best equipped to challenge Manchester City. The players appear to like Slot, so there should be no remarkable decline from the elevated standards we had come to expect under Klopp. If Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz are firing on all cylinders, achieving 85+ points shouldn’t be a problem.
It’s a measure of how much chemistry Manchester United manager Erik Ten Hag had with former Ajax Amsterdam proteges Noussair Mazraoui and Matthis de Ligt that they are going straight into the starting line up in Friday’s season opener at home to Fulham.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe was correct to retain Ten Hag as manager as the Dutchman is no managerial slouch. His ability to rally his injury ravaged squad to FA Cup glory is a pointer to glad tidings in the nearby future.
FRIDAY
Manchester United v Fulham
SATURDAY
Ipswich Town v Liverpool,
Newcastle United v Southampton,
Arsenal v Wolves,
Everton v Brighton,
Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth,
West Ham United v Aston Villa
SUNDAY
Brentford v Crystal Palace,
Chelsea v Manchester City
MONDAY
Leicester City v Spurs
